Global Burden of Disease 2023 data show rising drug use disorder burden in the US and India through 2040.
This analysis reviewed Global Burden of Disease 2023 data covering drug use disorders in China, India, and the United States, representing approximately 40% of the world's population. The study examined incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2023, with projections extending to 2040. Opioid use disorders contributed most to deaths and DALYs, with burden concentrated in younger adults and men.
In 2023, the United States exhibited the highest age-standardized rates, whereas India had the lowest. Temporal trends from 1990 to 2023 revealed declining rates in China, rising trends in the United States, and mixed trends in India, which saw rises in incidence, prevalence, and DALYs alongside a slight decrease in mortality.
Projections from 2024 to 2040 indicate growth across all indicators in the United States, with deaths nearly doubling (109.59%) and the age-standardized mortality rate increasing by 90.76%. India is projected to see rises in age-standardized mortality rate (30.40%) and age-standardized DALYs rate (15.73%). China is expected to experience modest increases in age-standardized rates (4.61%–24.23%) but a decline in incident cases (−7.45%).
The study did not report adverse events, discontinuations, or specific safety data. Limitations include the observational nature of the data and the lack of reported p-values or confidence intervals. These findings underscore the need for sustained, targeted interventions focusing on high-risk populations and specific drug types to mitigate future impacts.
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