Effects of Cigarette and E-cigarette Flavors on Substitutability in the ETM

In 2009, the FDA banned all flavored conventional cigarettes except menthol. While no such ban exists for e-cigarettes, proposals have emerged in several regions. Flavors are key targets for tobacco control policy, making it crucial to understand their role in substitution.The first wave of the PATH study found that 80% of youth, 73% of young adults, and 29% of older smokers used flavored products. Over 80% of young adults first used flavored tobacco, compared to about 50% of adults. Among ever-users, current tobacco use was 32% higher if their first product was flavored.One study reported that 75% of flavored product users would quit if flavors were removed. These findings highlight the importance of user type in shaping policy and raise the question of whether banning flavors would increase quitting or drive substitution. The Experimental Tobacco Marketplace (ETM) is a novel method for estimating the effects of new tobacco policies and products on consumption and substitution. By experimentally controlling product mix, prices, and policies, ETM simulates "real-world" conditions to assess potential policy impacts.This methodology has been used to study various policies in adult smokers under this grant: nicotine dose variations (Study 1), tobacco taxes and subsidies (Study 2), and workplace restrictions (Study 3). Study 1 found that cigarette and e-cigarette substitutability increased with e-liquid nicotine strength, with 24mg/mL showing the highest substitution. Study 2 showed that cigarette taxes reduced cigarette purchases and increased e-liquid purchases, while e-liquid subsidies increased e-liquid purchases but did not affect cigarette consumption. No study to date has experimentally examined the effects of flavored tobacco products availability on consumer behavior. The rationale for this specific proposal is to explore prospectively the possible consequences of a flavor ban on consumption and substitution with tobacco products. The results might inform tobacco control policies.