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Can high GDF-15 levels in the blood predict higher death risk for acute heart failure?

high confidence  ·  Last reviewed May 16, 2026

GDF-15 (growth differentiation factor-15) is a protein released during stress and inflammation. In acute heart failure (AHF), when the heart suddenly worsens, doctors look for markers that can predict outcomes. Research shows that high GDF-15 levels in the blood are strongly linked to a higher risk of death. A large meta-analysis found that patients with high GDF-15 had nearly three times the risk of dying compared to those with lower levels 2. This makes GDF-15 a promising tool for identifying high-risk patients.

What the research says

A 2025 meta-analysis pooled data from 10 studies involving 3,724 AHF patients and found that high admission GDF-15 levels were significantly associated with increased mortality risk (risk ratio 2.82, 95% CI 2.39-3.32) 2. The results were consistent across different study designs and populations, with no evidence of inconsistency between studies 2. This means the finding is robust and not due to chance or differences in study methods.

A separate prospective study of 260 AHF patients confirmed that GDF-15 levels were significantly higher in those who died within one year compared to survivors 7. In that study, GDF-15 predicted 1-year mortality with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.707, which is considered moderate accuracy 7. The same study found that combining GDF-15 with NT-proBNP (another common heart failure marker) improved prediction 7.

Another 2024 study in Thai patients with AHF found that GDF-15 levels measured at admission and discharge were associated with both short-term and long-term outcomes, including death and rehospitalization 9. This suggests GDF-15 may be useful not only for initial risk assessment but also for monitoring response to treatment.

While the evidence strongly supports GDF-15 as a predictor of death in AHF, it is not yet a routine test in all hospitals. Doctors typically use other markers like NT-proBNP or BNP. However, adding GDF-15 may provide extra information to guide care 79.

What to ask your doctor

  • Is GDF-15 testing available at this hospital, and could it help assess my risk?
  • How does my GDF-15 level compare to other heart failure markers like NT-proBNP?
  • If my GDF-15 level is high, what treatments or monitoring changes might be considered?
  • Should GDF-15 be measured again after treatment to see if my risk has changed?
  • Are there any other biomarkers or tests that could give a fuller picture of my prognosis?

This question is drawn from common patient questions about Cardiology and answered using cited medical research. We do not provide individualized advice.