Serial echocardiography in severe aortic regurgitation shows LVESD and FS changes predict risk

BACKGROUND: Guidelines recommend aortic valve replacement (AVR) in patients with severe aortic regurgitation (AR) based on progressive changes in left ventricular (LV) function or size. We aimed to reassess the clinical relevance of current guideline recommendations pertaining to traditional echocardiographic measurements in routine practice. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of patients with severe AR who underwent serial echocardiographic follow-up over at least 18 months. The composite outcome was symptom-driven AVR, acute heart failure hospitalization, or death. We used a joint modelling approach to handle within-subject correlation and censoring. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 140 patients, with a median follow?up of 93 months (interquartile range 58?130). LV end-systolic (LVESD) and fractional shortening (FS) showed a small but statistically significant longitudinal trend, while LVEDD did not. Changes in all three parameters in parallel joint models adjusted for age and gender were consistently associated with increased risk of the composite event. Each 1?mm increase in LVESD and LVEDD was associated with a 6% and 5% increase in risk, respectively; each 1% decrease in FS corresponded to a 12% increase in risk. Only 8 (5.7%) of patients were predicted to exceed the guideline-recommended LVEDD threshold of 65 mm over 10 years. Age at onset was also a significant risk factor, with each decade increasing risk by 65% for each of the three parallel joint models. CONCLUSIONS: LV parameters show modest changes over time, despite holding strong prognostic value in patients with severe AR. LVEDD, while associated with overall risk, does not predictably or significantly dilate over time in most patients. AVR decisions should be based on comprehensive clinical and volumetric assessment rather than waiting for simple linear progression to guideline cutoffs.