CGM-Derived Glycemic Persistence Index Predicts OGTT 2-Hour Glucose in Dysglycemia

Aims The oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) is effective for detecting post-load dysglycemia, but it is burdensome and therefore not routinely used. Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) offers a convenient way to capture real-world glucose patterns, yet it remains unclear whether CGM-derived metrics reflect OGTT-defined dysglycemia. We therefore aimed to evaluate CGM-derived and clinical metrics for predicting OGTT 2-hour glucose, classifying OGTT-defined dysglycemia, and assessing day-to-day repeatability. Methods We analyzed a cohort with paired free-living CGM and OGTT. Multiple CGM-derived metrics and clinical measures were compared for prediction of OGTT 2-hour glucose, classification of OGTT-defined dysglycemia, and day-to-day stability. Predictive performance was assessed primarily by leave-one-out (LOO) R^2, and day-to-day repeatability by intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). Results The glycemic persistence index (GPI), a metric integrating the magnitude and duration of glycemic elevation, was the strongest single predictor of OGTT 2-hour glucose (LOO R^2 = 0.439). GPI also showed strong day-to-day repeatability (ICC = 0.665) and ranked first on a combined prediction-stability score. For classification of OGTT-defined dysglycemia, HbA1c had a slightly higher AUC than GPI, but GPI plus HbA1c performed best overall, indicating complementary information. Conclusions GPI was a strong predictor of OGTT 2-hour glucose and showed a favorable balance between predictive performance and day-to-day stability, supporting its potential utility as a CGM-derived marker of dysglycemia.