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Serum procalcitonin shows moderate accuracy for sepsis diagnosis in critically ill ICU patientsBlood test for sepsis shows moderate accuracy in critically ill ICU patients

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Key Takeaway
Interpret serum procalcitonin results cautiously for sepsis diagnosis in critically ill ICU patients due to moderate accuracy.

This systematic review and diagnostic meta-analysis evaluated the accuracy of serum procalcitonin (PCT) for diagnosing sepsis in 1,098 critically ill adult patients with suspected infection admitted to intensive care units. The comparator was diagnosis based on Sepsis-3 criteria, with 635 patients diagnosed with sepsis and 89 with septic shock. The analysis did not report specific follow-up duration or safety data related to PCT measurement.

The meta-analysis found PCT had a pooled sensitivity of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.68-0.75) and specificity of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.61-0.69) for diagnosing sepsis. The pooled positive likelihood ratio was 2.45 (95% CI, 1.62-3.68), negative likelihood ratio was 0.38 (95% CI, 0.28-0.53), and diagnostic odds ratio was 7.08 (95% CI, 3.69-13.58). The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.73-0.86).

Safety and tolerability data for PCT measurement were not reported in the analysis. The authors noted low certainty for both sensitivity and specificity estimates, though specific study limitations were not detailed. Funding sources and potential conflicts of interest were also not reported.

For clinical practice, these findings suggest PCT has moderate diagnostic accuracy for sepsis in critically ill ICU patients but should not be used in isolation. The evidence has low certainty, and clinicians should integrate PCT results with comprehensive clinical assessment rather than relying on them as definitive diagnostic tools.

Researchers analyzed data from previous studies to see how accurate a blood test for a protein called procalcitonin (PCT) is at diagnosing sepsis. Sepsis is a life-threatening response to infection. The analysis combined results from studies involving 1,098 critically ill adults in intensive care units who were suspected of having an infection. Of these patients, 635 were diagnosed with sepsis and 89 with septic shock.

The main finding was that the PCT test had moderate accuracy. It correctly identified patients with sepsis about 72% of the time (sensitivity). It correctly identified patients without sepsis about 65% of the time (specificity). The overall diagnostic performance, measured by a statistical curve, was 0.79 on a scale where 1.0 is perfect. The review did not report on any safety concerns related to the blood test itself.

The main reason to be careful is that the certainty of this evidence is rated as low. This means the true accuracy of the test might be different. The authors of the review concluded that clinicians should be cautious about using PCT to help diagnose sepsis. For patients and families, this means the PCT test is a tool doctors might use, but it is not definitive. A diagnosis of sepsis still relies heavily on a doctor's overall assessment, other tests, and close monitoring of the patient's condition.

What this means for you:
A blood test for sepsis has moderate accuracy in ICU patients but should not be the only tool used for diagnosis.

Study Details

Study typeMeta analysis
Sample sizen = 1,098
EvidenceLevel 1
PublishedApr 2026
View Original Abstract ↓
INTRODUCTION: Procalcitonin (PCT) has been a blue-eyed-boy in diagnosing sepsis in previous years. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the accuracy of PCT for the diagnosis of sepsis, according to the recent Sepsis-3 criteria, in adult patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). METHODS: We searched several electronic databases, including PubMed, Science Direct, Wiley, Cochrane, and Google Scholar from the inception of the Sepsis-3 diagnostic criteria (January 1, 2016) until May 31, 2025, for randomized controlled trials, cohort, and case-control studies that assessed the diagnostic accuracy of PCT for sepsis using the Sepsis-3 criteria among critically ill adult patients with suspected infection. We performed a random effect diagnostic meta-analysis, evaluated the risk of bias of individual studies using the QUADAS tool, and assessed certainty of evidence using GRADE methodology. RESULTS: We included 10 studies comprising 1098 patients. Of these, 635 patients were diagnosed with sepsis based on Sepsis-3 criteria, including 89 patients with septic shock. The pooled sensitivity of PCT for diagnosing sepsis was 0.72 (95 % CI [confidence interval], 0.68-0.75, low certainty) and the pooled specificity was 0.65 (95 % CI, 0.61-0.69, low certainty). The pooled positive likelihood ratio was 2.45 (95 % CI [confidence interval], 1.62-3.68), The negative likelihood ratio was 0.38 (95 % CI, 0.28-0.53), and the pooled diagnostic odds ratio was 7.08 (95 % CI, 3.69-13.58). The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve of PCT was 0.79 (95 % CI 0.73-0.86). CONCLUSION: Based on pooled analysis, PCT has a moderate sensitivity and specificity for diagnosis of sepsis in ICU patients with suspected infection. These results suggest clinicians should be cautious about using PCT to facilitate the diagnosis of sepsis in critically ill adults with suspected infection. Given the ongoing uncertainty, further high-quality data in this population is needed.
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