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Dynamic ctDNA monitoring during neoadjuvant chemotherapy identifies high-risk rectal cancer patientsBlood test during chemo may help predict rectal cancer treatment response

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Key Takeaway
Consider dynamic ctDNA as a potential biomarker for identifying rectal cancer patients at high risk for poor neoadjuvant response.

This biomarker substudy analyzed 153 patients with low-/intermediate-risk locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) from a multicenter randomized trial, using 526 plasma samples. The study assessed dynamic circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) monitoring via tumor-informed sequencing during neoadjuvant chemotherapy, examining its association with pathologic response. No comparator was reported for the ctDNA monitoring approach.

The main results showed a strong association between ctDNA dynamics and treatment response. No patients (0) in the high-risk ctDNA dynamics group achieved a major pathologic response (pTRG 0-1). The poor response rate (pTRG 3 or distant metastasis) was 59.4% in the high-risk group versus 12.4% in the low-risk group (P < 0.001). High-risk dynamic ctDNA status was a strong independent predictor of poor response (OR = 11.69; 95% CI, 5-27.25; P < 0.001). Specific patterns like delayed/no clearance (OR = 12.64) and recurred positivity (OR = 8.91) were also significant risk factors.

Safety and tolerability data were not reported. This is a biomarker association study from an RCT substudy, not a primary intervention trial. The findings report associations with pathologic outcomes, not clinical outcomes like survival. The sample of 153 patients is from a larger trial. The practice relevance is restrained: dynamic ctDNA monitoring may identify patients with LARC at high risk for neoadjuvant chemotherapy failure early in treatment, which could inform adaptive trial design, but prospective validation is needed before clinical application.

Researchers studied a new way to monitor rectal cancer patients during chemotherapy. They tracked tiny pieces of tumor DNA, called ctDNA, in the blood of 153 patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. The goal was to see if changes in this ctDNA could predict how well the chemotherapy was working on the tumor before surgery.

They found a strong link. Patients whose ctDNA levels did not drop or cleared slowly during treatment were far less likely to have a good response to the chemotherapy. In fact, none of the patients in the highest-risk ctDNA group had a major response. The study showed that a positive ctDNA test, even just once before surgery, was strongly associated with a poor outcome.

It is important to understand what this study does and does not show. This was a research study looking for an association, not a test of whether changing treatment based on ctDNA would help patients. The results are promising, but they need to be confirmed in larger studies designed to see if using this information to personalize treatment actually improves patient survival or quality of life. For now, this is a step toward more personalized cancer care, but not a practice-ready tool.

What this means for you:
A blood test tracking tumor DNA shows promise for predicting chemo response in rectal cancer, but more research is needed.

Study Details

Study typeRct
Sample sizen = 526
EvidenceLevel 2
PublishedApr 2026
View Original Abstract ↓
PURPOSE: Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT) has been accepted as the standard management for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) without high-risk factors. However, many patients experience poor pathologic response, necessitating early-prediction tools. We investigated dynamic circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) analysis for early response monitoring in patients with LARC undergoing NCT. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: In this biomarker substudy of the multicenter randomized COPEC trial, 153 patients with low-/intermediate-risk LARC were enrolled. Plasma samples (n = 526) were collected at baseline and after each cycle of NCT. ctDNA was analyzed via tumor-informed sequencing. Patients were classified by dynamic status into high-risk (delayed/no clearance and recurred positive) and low-risk (early clearance and persistent negative) groups. Poor response was defined as pathologic tumor regression grade (pTRG) 3 or distant metastasis. The association between ctDNA status and responses was analyzed. RESULTS: No patient with high-risk ctDNA dynamics achieved a major pathologic response (pTRG 0-1). The poor response rate was 59.4% in the high-risk group versus 12.4% in the low-risk group (P < 0.001). High-risk dynamic ctDNA status was a strong independent predictor of poor response (OR = 11.69; 95% confidence interval, 5-27.25; P < 0.001). Both delayed/no clearance (OR = 12.64; P < 0.001) and recurred positivity (OR = 8.91; P < 0.001) were significant risk factors. A single preoperative ctDNA-positive result also predicted poor response (OR = 11.27; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Dynamic ctDNA monitoring identifies patients with LARC at high risk for NCT failure as early as two cycles into treatment, which can form the basis for an adaptive trial design and eventual personalization of therapy selection.
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