A narrative review explored the complex factors that lead to the emergence of viral diseases, particularly in tropical regions. The review identified that these outbreaks are not caused by a single factor. Instead, they result from a mix of ecological changes, such as forest fragmentation and land-use changes, and molecular changes, like the way RNA viruses adapt to evade human immunity.
Several key drivers were identified, including the diversity of animal hosts, changes in vector ecology, and the increasing contact between humans and animals. On a molecular level, the study noted that viruses can develop receptor-binding plasticity and strategies to bypass the immune system. These factors can lead to issues like cytokine storms or interfered interferon activity.
To help manage these risks, the review discussed the Tropical Viral Emergence Risk Index (TVERI). This is a new concept that combines ecological, molecular, and immunological data to assess risk. Because this is a conceptual framework, it requires more testing before it can be used in practice. The findings suggest that better surveillance and a One Health approach can improve how we prepare for future pandemics.
