Global acute hepatitis C incidence declined overall but increased after 2015, analysis shows.
An observational cohort analysis examined temporal trends in acute hepatitis C incidence and age-period-cohort effects from 1990 to 2021 in the global and Chinese populations. The study used modeled Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data to analyze age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR). No specific intervention or comparator was reported, as the focus was on describing population-level trends over time.
The main results showed the global ASIR had an overall declining trend from 1990 to 2021, with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of -0.38%. However, after 2015, this trend reversed, indicating a resurgence. In China, the ASIR declined most rapidly, with an AAPC of -1.55%. The analysis found low socio-demographic index (SDI) regions faced the highest burden of acute hepatitis C. Age-period-cohort analysis revealed a bimodal age pattern, with incidence peaks in early childhood (0–4 years) and old age (≥95 years).
Safety and tolerability data were not reported. Key limitations stem from the study's ecological design using population-level modeled data, which cannot establish causality or infer individual-level risk. The funding source and author conflicts of interest were not reported. For clinical practice, these findings highlight shifting epidemiological patterns but are not directly applicable to individual patient management. The observed post-2015 increase in global incidence warrants attention from public health authorities.
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