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High glycemic variability in ICU patients linked to 2.29-fold higher mortality riskBlood sugar swings linked to higher death risk in ICU patients

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Key Takeaway
Consider high glycemic variability as a prognostic marker for mortality in adult ICU patients, but recognize the observational nature of the evidence.

This systematic review and meta-analysis pooled data from 36 studies involving 123,911 adult ICU patients to assess the association between short-term glycemic variability (GV) metrics and clinical outcomes. The analysis included 25 studies in the meta-analysis. GV metrics examined included standard deviation (SD), mean absolute glucose (MAG), coefficient of variation (CV), and mean amplitude of glycemic excursions (MAGE).

Key findings showed that patients in the highest versus lowest quartile of GV had significantly higher mortality across multiple time points. For ICU mortality, the relative risk was 2.29 (95% CI 1.71-3.07) for SD and 2.24 (95% CI 1.19-4.23) for MAG. Hospital mortality was elevated with CV (RR 1.39, 95% CI 1.05-1.85) and SD (RR 2.26, 95% CI 1.19-4.30). 28/30-day mortality was increased with CV (RR 1.34, 95% CI 1.10-1.63) and MAGE (RR 2.05, 95% CI 1.52-2.77). 90-day mortality showed the strongest association with MAGE (RR 2.90, 95% CI 1.96-4.30). Infection risk increased modestly per unit increase in SD (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.04), while neurological adverse events were not statistically significant (OR 1.23, 95% CI 0.91-1.66).

Limitations were not reported in the abstract, but the meta-analysis is based on observational studies, so associations should not be interpreted as causal. The results suggest that short-term GV may serve as a prognostic marker to complement mean glucose monitoring in the ICU, but clinical application requires further prospective validation.

A large review of 36 studies involving nearly 124,000 adult ICU patients found that short-term swings in blood sugar levels are linked to a higher risk of death. The analysis looked at several measures of glycemic variability, including standard deviation and mean amplitude of glycemic excursions. Patients with the greatest blood sugar fluctuations had roughly double the risk of dying in the ICU compared to those with the steadiest levels.

The review also found that larger blood sugar swings were tied to a slightly increased risk of infection. However, the link to neurological problems was not statistically significant. It is important to note that these results come from observational studies, which can show associations but cannot prove that blood sugar swings directly cause worse outcomes.

No information on side effects or funding was reported in the abstract. Because this is a meta-analysis of observational data, the findings should be interpreted with caution. The results suggest that monitoring blood sugar variability might help identify high-risk ICU patients, but they do not change current treatment recommendations.

For now, the main takeaway is that large blood sugar fluctuations in critically ill patients are associated with poorer outcomes. Doctors may use this information alongside average blood sugar levels to assess risk, but more research is needed to determine whether stabilizing blood sugar swings improves survival.

What this means for you:
Large blood sugar swings in ICU patients are linked to higher death risk, but this does not prove cause and effect.

Study Details

Study typeMeta analysis
EvidenceLevel 1
PublishedJun 2026
View Original Abstract ↓
ObjectiveTo quantify associations between short-term glycemic variability (GV) metrics and multidimensional adverse outcomes in critically ill patients.MethodsWe searched PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science from inception to August 16, 2025. We included observational studies of adult ICU patients reporting associations between short-term GV and adverse outcomes. Random-effects models were used for all meta-analyses. Where feasible, effect estimates were standardized to a relative risk (RR) comparing the highest versus lowest quartiles of GV.ResultsWe included 36 studies (123,911 patients), and 25 were meta-analyzed. ICU mortality was associated with standard deviation (SD; RR = 2.29, 95% CI 1.71–3.07) and mean absolute glucose change (MAG; RR = 2.24, 95% CI 1.19–4.23). Hospital mortality was associated with coefficient of variation (CV, RR = 1.39, 95% CI 1.05–1.85) and SD (RR = 2.26, 95% CI 1.19–4.30). 28/30-day mortality was associated with CV (RR = 1.34, 95% CI 1.10–1.63) and mean amplitude of glycemic excursions (MAGE; RR = 2.05, 95% CI 1.52–2.77), and MAGE also predicted 90-day mortality (RR = 2.90, 95% CI 1.96–4.30). Furthermore, each unit increase in SD predicted higher infection risk (OR = 1.02, 95% CI 1.01–1.04) but not neurological adverse events (OR = 1.23, 95% CI 0.91–1.66).ConclusionShort-term GV is a robust predictor of mortality across different follow-up windows and clinical settings, as well as infection-related outcomes. The current findings support using short-term GV as a key prognostic marker to complement mean glucose in intensive care.Systematic review registrationhttps://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD420251114266, identifier PROSPERO (CRD420251114266).
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