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SLN macrometastasis and abnormal axillary ultrasound findings increase risk of non-sentinel lymph node metastasisSpecific markers predict spread of breast cancer in lymph nodes

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Key Takeaway
Note that SLN macrometastasis and abnormal axillary ultrasound findings are significant predictors of NSLN metastasis.

This systematic review and meta-analysis synthesized data from 37 studies involving 13,304 patients with sentinel lymph node (SLN)-positive breast cancer to identify predictors of non-sentinel lymph node (NSLN) metastasis. The analysis utilized a random-effects model to evaluate various clinical, pathological, and imaging factors.

Several factors were significantly associated with an increased risk of NSLN metastasis. These included SLN macrometastasis (OR 6.07, 95% CI: 2.21-16.7), abnormal preoperative axillary ultrasound (AUS) findings (OR 3.51, 95% CI: 2.25-5.47), extranodal extension of SLN (OR 2.67, 95% CI: 2.07-3.44), and lymphovascular invasion (OR 2.68, 95% CI: 2.18-3.29). Other significant predictors included perineural invasion (OR 2.37), tumor diameter > 2 cm (OR 2.06), clinical T stage $≥$ T2 (OR 2.44), histologic grade $≥$ 3 (OR 1.76), number of positive SLNs (OR 2.32), SLN positivity ratio $≥$ 50% (OR 2.17), multifocality (OR 2.68), HER2 positivity (OR 2.22), and high Ki-67 index (OR 2.20).

The authors noted limitations regarding the quality and quantity of the included studies. They suggest that while these factors may inform individualized axillary management, further high-quality, large-scale prospective studies are required to validate these findings. Clinical utility is currently limited by the observational nature of the pooled data.

How this fits prior evidence

This meta-analysis addresses a gap in identifying specific predictors for non-sentinel lymph node (NSLN) metastasis in patients with sentinel lymph node (SLN)-positive breast cancer. While previous evidence noted that ultrasound-based deep-learning models show 0.89 specificity in breast cancer, this meta-analysis highlights that abnormal preoperative axillary ultrasound findings are associated with an increased risk of NSLN metastasis (OR 3.51). The findings regarding tumor burden and biological characteristics like HER2 status provide additional context for risk stratification in axillary management.

When doctors treat breast cancer, they need to know how likely the cancer is to spread beyond the first lymph node. This is a critical piece of information for deciding how to manage the area under the arm. A large review of 37 studies involving over 13,000 patients identified several specific markers that signal a higher risk of the cancer spreading to non-sentinel lymph nodes.

Several factors showed a strong link to this spread. These included a large tumor size (over 2 centimeters), abnormal ultrasound findings before surgery, and a high grade of cancer. Other indicators included the presence of cancer in the blood vessels or nerves, and specific biological markers like HER2 status. Each of these factors helps doctors better understand the behavior of the cancer.

While these findings provide a clearer picture of risk, the researchers noted that the quality and quantity of the original studies were limited. Because these results are based on associations rather than direct causes, they are intended to help doctors tailor treatment plans for each patient. More large-scale studies are needed to confirm these findings fully.

What this means for you:
Several factors, including tumor size and ultrasound results, help predict if breast cancer will spread to more lymph nodes.

Common questions

What specific factors increase the risk of cancer spreading?

Several factors are linked to a higher risk of spread. These include a large tumor size (over 2 cm), abnormal ultrasound findings before surgery, and a high histologic grade. Other factors include the number of positive lymph nodes and specific biological markers like HER1 and Ki-67 index.

How do these findings help in treating breast cancer?

These findings help doctors identify which patients are at a higher risk of cancer spreading to non-sentinel lymph nodes. By identifying these risks early, doctors can better tailor the management of the axillary area (the area under the arm) for each individual patient.

Is this information certain enough to change treatment?

The findings show strong associations, but they are not proof of cause. Because the quality and quantity of the included studies were limited, the researchers suggest that more high-quality, large-scale studies are needed to fully validate these findings before they are used as a sole basis for treatment.

Study Details

Study typeMeta analysis
EvidenceLevel 1
PublishedOct 2026
View Original Abstract ↓
ObjectiveTo systematically evaluate risk factors associated with non-sentinel lymph node (NSLN) metastasis in patients with sentinel lymph node (SLN)-positive breast cancer.MethodsA comprehensive literature search was performed in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library from database inception to November 12, 2025. Studies reporting multivariable analyses of risk factors for NSLN metastasis were included. Study quality was independently assessed by two reviewers using the Newcastle–Ottawa Scale (NOS). Pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using a random-effects model. Heterogeneity, sensitivity analyses, and publication bias were also evaluated. All statistical analyses were conducted using Stata version 15.0.ResultsA total of 37 studies involving 13,304 patients were included. The meta-analysis demonstrated that SLN macrometastasis (OR = 6.07, 95% CI: 2.21–16.7), abnormal preoperative AUS findings (OR = 3.51, 95% CI: 2.25–5.47), extranodal extension of SLN (OR = 2.67, 95% CI: 2.07 -3.44), lymphovascular invasion (OR = 2.68, 95% CI: 2.18–3.29), perineural invasion (OR = 2.37, 95% CI: 1.18–4.76), tumor diameter > 2 cm (OR = 2.06, 95% CI: 1.52–2.78), clinical T stage ≥ T2 (OR = 2.44, 95% CI: 2.02–2.95), histologic grade ≥ 3 (OR = 1.76, 95% CI: 1.44–2.16), number of positive SLNs (OR = 2.32, 95% CI: 1.53–3.53), SLN positivity ratio ≥ 50% (OR = 2.17, 95% CI: 1.74–2.70), multifocality (OR = 2.68, 95% CI: 1.98–3.63), HER2 positivity (OR = 2.22, 95% CI: 1.63–3.01), and a high Ki-67 index (OR = 2.20, 95% CI: 1.13–4.25) were associated with an increased risk of NSLN metastasis.ConclusionSLN tumor burden, abnormal preoperative axillary ultrasound findings, tumor aggressiveness, and intrinsic biological characteristics (e.g., HER2 status and Ki-67 index) are key predictors of NSLN metastasis. Given the limitations in the quality and quantity of the included studies, further high-quality, large-scale prospective studies are warranted to validate these findings and provide more robust evidence for individualized axillary management in breast cancer.Systematic Review Registrationhttps://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/, identifier CRD420261301905.
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