Combined radiomics classifier predicts 3-year recurrence in surgically resected stage IA-IIIA non-small cell lung cancer

Objectives: Among surgically resected non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with similar stage and histopathological characteristics, there is variability in patient outcomes which highlights urgency of identifying biomarkers to predict recurrence. The goal of this study was to systematically develop a pre-surgical CT-based habitat-based radiomics classifier to predict recurrence-of-risk in NSCLC. Methods: This study included 293 NSCLC patients with surgically resected stage IA-IIIA disease that were randomly divided into a training (n = 195) and test cohorts (n = 98). From pre-surgical CT images, tumor habitats were generated using two-level unsupervised clustering and then radiomic features were calculated from the intratumoral region and habitat-defined subregions. Using ridge-regularized logistic regression, separate classifiers were developed to predict 3-year recurrence using intratumoral radiomics, habitat-based radiomics, and a combined model (intratumoral and habitat) which was generated using a stacked learning framework. For each classifier, probability of recurrence was calculated for each patient then numerous statistical and machine learning approaches were utilized to stratify patients for recurrence-free survival. Results: The combined radiomics classifier yielded a superior AUC (0.82) compared to the intratumoral (AUC = 0.75) and habitat radiomics (AUC = 0.81) models. When the classifiers were used to stratify high- versus low-risk patients utilizing a cut-point identified by decision tree analysis, high-risk patients were yielded the largest risk estimate (HR = 8.43; 95% CI 2.47 - 28.81) compared to the habitat (HR = 5.41; 95% CI 2.08 - 14.09) and intratumoral radiomics (HR = 3.54; 95% CI 1.45 - 8.66) models. SHAP analyses indicated that habitat-derived information contributed most strongly to recurrence prediction. Conclusions: This study revealed that habitat-based radiomics provided superior statistical performance than intratumoral radiomics for predicting recurrence in NSCLC.