Post-hoc analysis links lower systolic BP to higher cardiovascular risk in AF and stable CAD
This post-hoc analysis of the AFIRE randomized controlled trial examined 2135 patients with atrial fibrillation and stable coronary artery disease, stratified by median baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP >126 mmHg vs. ≤126 mmHg). The primary comparison was between these SBP groups for a composite efficacy endpoint of cardiovascular events and all-cause death. A propensity score-matched cohort of 1684 patients was also analyzed to compare antithrombotic strategies within the lower SBP group.
Patients with baseline SBP ≤126 mmHg (Low SBP group) had a 38% higher risk of the composite efficacy endpoint compared to those with SBP >126 mmHg (High SBP group), with a hazard ratio of 1.38 (95% CI 1.01-1.88; p=0.039). Within the Low SBP group, rivaroxaban monotherapy was associated with significantly lower risks compared to rivaroxaban plus single antiplatelet therapy: a 40% lower risk for the efficacy endpoint (HR 0.60, 95% CI 0.41-0.86; p=0.006) and a 60% lower risk for major bleeding (HR 0.40, 95% CI 0.22-0.74; p=0.003). Absolute event numbers were not reported.
Safety and tolerability data beyond major bleeding were not reported. Key limitations include the post-hoc, observational nature of the analysis within the trial context, which precludes establishing causality between SBP levels and outcomes. The findings are specific to the AFIRE trial population and antithrombotic regimens studied. For practice, these results suggest an association between lower baseline systolic blood pressure and poorer cardiovascular outcomes in this dual-diagnosis population, and within that subgroup, monotherapy may offer a better risk-benefit profile than combination therapy, but this requires confirmation in prospective studies.