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Federated meta-analysis validates HEART score performance for chest pain risk stratification in EDsFederated HEART score analysis shows consistent chest pain risk prediction across six emergency departments

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Key Takeaway
Consider federated meta-analysis as a privacy-preserving method for validating ED risk scores like HEART.

A retrospective, multicenter observational study evaluated a federated diagnostic meta-analytic approach for predicting 30-day major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE30) using the HEART score. The study included 57,906 ED encounters from six emergency departments involving adult patients presenting with chest pain who had a documented HEART score. The primary outcome was 30-day MACE, with secondary outcomes including sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, and discrimination metrics.

The main results showed a MACE30 occurrence rate of 2.2%. The pooled hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) area under the curve from the federated meta-analysis was 0.759 (95% CI, 0.646-0.831). For comparison, the discrimination (AUROC) from a centralized patient-level analysis was 0.785 (95% CI, 0.776-0.794), indicating close alignment between the two analytical approaches.

Safety and tolerability data were not reported. Key limitations included barriers to patient-level data sharing, modest between-site variability, and variation in outcome prevalence across the six EDs. Funding and conflicts of interest were also not reported.

In practice, this study suggests that federated diagnostic meta-analysis can produce HEART score performance estimates closely aligned with those from centralized patient-level data. This approach may enable scalable, privacy-preserving multicenter evaluation of ED risk-stratification tools while accommodating heterogeneity across practice settings. However, the observational nature of the evidence and the lack of safety reporting require cautious interpretation.

This large study examined how well the HEART score predicts major adverse cardiovascular events within 30 days for adults presenting with chest pain. Data came from six different emergency departments involving over 57,000 encounters. The team compared a federated diagnostic meta-analysis, which keeps patient data local, against a centralized patient-level analysis that pools all data together.

The federated method yielded a discrimination score of 0.759, while the centralized analysis scored 0.785. These numbers are very close, suggesting that federated approaches can provide reliable risk-stratification estimates without moving sensitive patient information to a central server. This alignment allows for scalable evaluation of risk tools while accommodating differences between various practice settings.

No safety concerns were reported because the study focused on diagnostic accuracy rather than medication side effects. Readers should take from this that federated analysis is a promising way to evaluate tools like the HEART score across different hospitals. However, the study notes modest variability between sites and differences in how often outcomes occur, which means results may vary in other locations.

What this means for you:
Federated analysis of HEART scores showed performance similar to centralized data, but this observational study does not prove the method improves patient care.

Study Details

Study typeMeta analysis
EvidenceLevel 1
PublishedApr 2026
View Original Abstract ↓
OBJECTIVES: Multicenter evaluation of emergency department (ED) risk stratification tools is often limited by barriers to patient-level data sharing. We used the HEART score as a clinical use case to evaluate whether a federated diagnostic meta-analytic approach yields performance estimates comparable to those obtained from centralized patient-level analysis for predicting 30-day major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE30). METHODS: We conducted a retrospective, multicenter observational study across six EDs between January 1, 2020, and December 31, 2023. Adult patients presenting with chest pain who had a documented HEART score were included. MACE30 was defined as acute myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, or all-cause mortality. The diagnostic performance of the HEART score was evaluated using a federated bivariate random-effects meta-analysis based on site-level 2 × 2 tables, yielding pooled sensitivity, specificity, and hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) estimates. These results were compared with performance metrics derived from centralized patient-level analysis. RESULTS: Among 57,906 ED encounters with documented HEART scores, MACE30 occurred in 2.2%. In federated meta-analysis, the HEART score demonstrated high specificity and negative predictive value, consistent with its intended rule-out function, with modest between-site variability. The pooled HSROC area under the curve was 0.759 (95% CI, 0.646-0.831). Centralized patient-level analysis yielded similar discrimination (AUROC 0.785; 95% CI, 0.776-0.794). Differences between federated and centralized estimates were small and clinically modest, reflecting preservation of site-level heterogeneity and variation in outcome prevalence across EDs. CONCLUSIONS: Federated diagnostic meta-analysis produced HEART score performance estimates closely aligned with those obtained from centralized patient-level data. This approach enabled scalable, privacy-preserving multicenter evaluation of ED risk-stratification tools while accommodating heterogeneity across practice settings.
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