Population study links PALB2 variants to increased cancer risk and mortality in two large cohorts

PURPOSE To evaluate cancer risk, age-specific penetrance, and mortality associated with heterozygous pathogenic or likely pathogenic (P/LP) germline PALB2 variants identified through genomic ascertainment and to assess modification by family history of cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS We conducted a case-control study in two large population-based adult cohorts: the UK Biobank (n=469,580) and Geisinger MyCode (n=167,050). Individuals with heterozygous PALB2 P/LP variants were identified via exome sequencing and compared with non-carriers. Cancer diagnoses and vital status were obtained from linked registry and electronic health record data. We used multivariable logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for cancer outcomes and Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality. Age-specific cumulative incidence (penetrance) was estimated using Kaplan-Meier methods. Models were adjusted for birth year, sex (when applicable), smoking status, and body mass index; stratified analyses assessed modification by family history of cancer. RESULTS PALB2 P/LP variant prevalence was 1:571 in UK Biobank and 1:940 in MyCode, with the higher prevalence in the UK cohort driven by the PALB2 p.Trp1038Ter founder variant. Compared with non-carriers, heterozygotes had significantly increased odds of any cancer, female breast cancer, pancreatic cancer, and cancers of ill-defined or secondary sites in both cohorts (P < 0.01). Adjusted hazard ratios for any cancer and female breast cancer ranged from 1.7 to 3.6. All-cause mortality was increased among PALB2-heterozygotes (HR 1.61-1.67), and survival after cancer diagnosis was reduced. Family history further modified cancer risk. CONCLUSION Genomic ascertainment of PALB2-heterozygotes identifies elevated risk for multiple cancers and increased mortality, although risks were lower than estimates from familial ascertainment. These findings inform risk management for individuals identified through genomic screening.