Regional motif diversity score in cfDNA predicts pembrolizumab response in head and neck cancer

Reliable, minimally invasive biomarkers for predicting immunotherapy response in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) remain an unmet clinical need. Here, using patients from a prospective, multi-institutional phase II clinical trial (NCT02641093), we performed whole-genome sequencing of 185 plasma cell-free DNA (cfDNA) samples collected longitudinally from 68 patients with locally advanced, surgically resectable HNSCC undergoing neoadjuvant and adjuvant pembrolizumab treatment. We developed the regional motif diversity score (rMDS), a novel fragmentomic metric quantifying the entropy of cfDNA 5' end motifs across genomic regions. Remarkably, unsupervised analysis revealed that rMDS robustly distinguished immunotherapy responders from non-responders, outperforming established cfDNA fragmentomic metrics and copy number alterations, while demonstrating independence from technical confounders. Longitudinal analysis revealed dynamic rMDS changes in genomic regions enriched for immune-, lectin-, and keratinization-related genes-hallmarks of squamous cell carcinoma-reflecting the interplay between tumor and peripheral immunity during the immunotherapy treatment. Interestingly, the regions with the most dynamic rMDS changes were highly enriched in telomere-proximal loci, suggesting a novel link between telomere biology and cfDNA fragmentation. A machine learning classifier based on rMDS achieved robust predictive performance across multiple validation settings (AUC 0.89-0.99), with the highest accuracy at post-treatment timepoints and superior to PD-L1 expression and tumor fraction in the same sample. Predicted responders demonstrated significant trends toward improved disease-free survival (log rank test p=0.035, hazard ratio: 2.67, 95% confidence interval: 1.03-6.92), underscoring the clinical utility of rMDS-based stratification. These findings position rMDS as a biologically meaningful and clinically actionable biomarker for immunotherapy response in HNSCC, supporting its integration into future risk assessment frameworks and broader cancer care.