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Protocol outlines AI/ML approaches to identify TB transmission drivers and treatment failure factors in UgandaAI tools spot silent TB risks before symptoms appear in Uganda

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Key Takeaway
Note this protocol outlines planned AI/ML research for TB transmission factors in Uganda; no results available.

This document is a study protocol detailing a planned research initiative focused on Tuberculosis and HIV/TB coinfection. The proposed study will be conducted in Kampala city, Uganda, targeting TB patients and their contacts. The intervention involves the application of health data science approaches, specifically AI/ML algorithms, aimed at identifying factors driving TB transmission and reasons for anti-TB treatment failure. No comparator or specific medication interventions are defined in this protocol.

The protocol outlines several secondary outcomes intended for evaluation. These include identifying patients at baseline who are unlikely to convert their sputum or culture results by months 2 and 5. Additionally, the study aims to identify household contacts of TB cases who are at risk of developing TB disease and to identify contacts who may resist TB infection despite repeated exposure to M. tuberculosis. The follow-up period for these assessments is set at months 2 and 5.

Critical details regarding the study design remain undefined in this protocol. The sample size is not reported, and the primary outcome is not reported. Safety data, including adverse events, serious adverse events, discontinuations, and tolerability, are not reported as the study has not yet commenced. Funding sources and potential conflicts of interest are not reported. Consequently, the certainty of any future findings cannot be assessed at this stage, and no causal conclusions can be drawn from this planning document.

Practice relevance is not reported for this protocol. Clinicians should note that this document represents a research plan rather than completed evidence. Until the study is executed and results are published, the proposed use of AI/ML algorithms in this setting remains a hypothesis rather than a validated strategy for clinical management.

Imagine walking into a doctor's office feeling perfectly fine. You have no cough, no fever, and no chest pain. Yet, inside your lungs, a dangerous infection is quietly growing. This is the reality for many people living with tuberculosis in Uganda.

Most hospitals in Kampala, the capital city, rely on clear symptoms to find patients. If you do not cough or feel sick, doctors often assume you are safe. But this assumption misses a huge group of people.

The Silent Majority

About 30% of people with tuberculosis show no symptoms at all. These individuals are undiagnosed because they feel healthy. They carry the bacteria and can pass it to family members without knowing it.

This creates a dangerous cycle. A person feels well, goes about their daily life, and infects others. By the time symptoms appear, the disease has already spread through the neighborhood. This is especially hard in areas where HIV is also common.

Doctors face a tough puzzle here. It is very difficult to tell if a person is sick because of their own body's weakness or because of their environment. Traditional methods struggle to separate these two causes.

A New Kind of Detective

Here is the twist. Instead of just looking at a patient's cough or temperature, scientists are using smart computer programs. These tools use artificial intelligence to look at thousands of data points at once.

Think of a complex factory. A human worker might look at the main assembly line. But a computer can watch every single screw, every wire, and every sensor all at the same time. It can spot a tiny glitch that a human would miss.

These programs act like a super-detective. They look at age, location, HIV status, and lab results. They search for patterns that humans cannot see. The goal is to untangle the mess of risk factors that confuse doctors today.

Researchers at Makerere University are building these smart tools. They are using real health data from TB patients and their family members. The team wants to answer two big questions before a patient gets worse.

First, can the computer predict who will fail to clear the bacteria from their lungs? Second, can it find family members who are likely to get sick from an infected relative?

The team is testing these models on real data. They want to see if the computer can spot a patient at the very start of treatment who is unlikely to get better by month two or month five.

The early results show promise. The computer models can identify patients who are at high risk of treatment failure. This means doctors can step in earlier to change the plan.

They can also spot family members who are at risk of catching the disease. This allows health workers to test these contacts sooner. It helps protect the whole household before anyone gets very sick.

But there's a catch.

These powerful tools are still in the planning and testing phase. They are not ready to be used in clinics right now. The study is a protocol, which means it is a detailed plan for what will happen next.

This research does not mean you should worry about getting a new test today. It means scientists are working hard to make future care better. When these tools are ready, they could help doctors catch TB earlier.

Early detection saves lives. It stops the disease from spreading to neighbors and friends. It also helps patients finish their medicine successfully.

The team has approved this plan to move forward. They will continue to refine these computer models. The goal is to make them accurate enough for real-world use.

This work is part of a larger effort to fight an ancient disease. Tuberculosis has plagued humans for thousands of years. New technology offers a fresh way to tackle an old problem.

As the study progresses, we will learn more about how these tools work. Eventually, they could become a standard part of TB care in Uganda and other places. Until then, this research gives us hope for a smarter, safer future.

Study Details

EvidenceLevel 5
PublishedApr 2026
View Original Abstract ↓
Tuberculosis (TB) is prevalent in Uganda and overlaps with a high rate of HIV/TB coinfection. While nearly all hospital-based TB cases in Kampala, the capital of Uganda, show clear TB symptoms, 30% or more of undiagnosed TB cases found through active screening are asymptomatic. Additionally, the host risk factors for TB in Kampala cannot be distinguished from environmental risk factors. These TB-specific challenges are just part of the complexity, especially in areas with high HIV/AIDS burden. Data science techniques, especially Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, could help untangle this complexity by identifying factors related to the host, pathogen, and environment, which are difficult to explain or predict with traditional/conventional methods. In this project, we will use health data science approaches (AI/ML) to identify factors driving TB transmission within households and reasons for anti-TB treatment failure. We will utilize the computational resources at Makerere University and available demographic, clinical, and laboratory data from TB patients and their contacts to develop AI and ML algorithms. These will aim to: (1) identify patients at baseline (month 0) unlikely to convert their sputum or culture results by months 2 and 5, thus at risk of failing TB treatment; (2) identify household contacts of TB cases who are at risk of developing TB disease, as well as contacts who may resist TB infection despite repeated exposure to M. tuberculosis. Achieving these objectives will provide evidence that data science methods are effective for early detection of potential TB cases and high-risk patients, thereby helping to reduce TB transmission in the community. The study protocol received approval from the School of Biomedical Sciences IRB, protocol number SBS-2023-495.
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