UK retrospective cohort study of tolvaptan prescribing in ADPKD reveals significant variation in initiation and substantial national costs.

Background and hypothesis Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) affects over 12 million people worldwide including an estimated 30,000-70,000 in the United Kingdom (UK). Tolvaptan is the only disease-modifying therapy approved for rapidly progressing disease. Despite national guidance, prescribing rates were hypothesised to vary by kidney centre. Treatment may not always align with guidelines: some patients eligible for tolvaptan may not be initiated, while other patients initiated on tolvaptan may not meet eligibility criteria. This may have important consequences for healthcare costs and health-related quality of life. Methods The National Registry of Rare Kidney Diseases (RaDaR) collects longitudinal data from UK NHS kidney centres. This retrospective cohort study used routinely collected data (2016-2023) to examine tolvaptan prescribing across kidney centres. Kidney centre-level initiation patterns were described, assessed using mixed-effects logistic regression and visualised with funnel plots. Cost-effectiveness analyses combined observed prescribing practices under likely negotiated commercial discounts to estimate costs and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) consequences of prescribing at the national level. Results Our study included 3,609 people with ADPKD from 72 kidney centres. Patients eligible for tolvaptan who were not initiated accounted for 34.8% (292/839). Across centres, five (6.9%) initiated tolvaptan significantly more than expected among eligible participants, while one centre (1.4%) initiated significantly less. Nationally, this could result in up to {pound}53.7 million in lost savings (assuming a 60% medication price reduction) and result in up to 1,245 lost QALYs. Patients initiated on tolvaptan who were not eligible accounted for 26.1% (103/395). Only one centre had significantly fewer eligible patients than expected among initiated patients. Nationally, this could cost up to {pound}15.9 million (assuming a 60% medication price reduction). Conclusions There is evidence of variation in tolvaptan prescribing in the UK. A substantial proportion of patients eligible for tolvaptan were not initiated at the cohort-level, with evidence of variation between centres suggesting differences in treatment decision-making. A substantial proportion of patients initiated on tolvaptan were not eligible at the cohort-level, but there was limited evidence of variation between centres. Together, these findings raise questions regarding the potential consistency of clinical decision-making, equitable access to a sole disease-modifying therapy in a rare disease, alignment with national guidance, and effective use of healthcare resources.