Researchers studied whether they could predict which ICU patients with delirium were at higher risk of dying within 90 days or one year. They looked at 632 adult patients from a larger trial who had delirium in the ICU and information about their health before admission. The team created mathematical models using factors like frailty, age, cancer history, and type of hospital admission.
The models showed fair ability to distinguish between patients with different mortality risks, with similar accuracy for both 90-day and 1-year predictions. The models were carefully tested within this specific patient group to check their reliability.
It's important to know these models were developed using patients from just three hospitals in one clinical trial. They haven't been tested in other ICU settings yet, so we don't know if they would work equally well elsewhere. The study also didn't test whether using these predictions would actually help doctors make better decisions or improve patient outcomes.
For now, this research represents an early step toward better understanding outcomes for ICU patients with delirium. The models need validation in broader patient populations before they could potentially be used to inform clinical care discussions.