Researchers studied 525 Indian household contacts of tuberculosis patients to see if blood-based gene signatures could predict who might develop TB over a year. The study used a microfluidic platform to test several signatures, including RISK6, Sweeney3, and INDIA10.
During 12 months of follow-up, 12 people (about 2%) progressed to TB, including 6 children aged 5–14 years. The predictive performance of the signatures was modest, with AUC values around 0.59 to 0.61, meaning they were not strong predictors. Specificity at a fixed sensitivity level was also low, ranging from 0.32 to 0.56.
No safety issues were reported, as the study only involved blood draws. The main reason to be careful is that this is an observational cohort study, so it shows links but not cause-and-effect, and the results are based on one group in India.
The realistic takeaway is that these signatures show some promise for TB prediction in this population, but they are not ready for clinical use and need more research in larger, diverse groups.