Retrospective study identifies imaging biomarkers for AMD progression using machine learning models

ObjectiveTo develop an integrated model that combines multimodal fundus image features for accurately predicting the individualized risk of progression from early to late stages of age-related macular degeneration (AMD).MethodsA retrospective analysis was conducted on the data of 324 patients with AMD. The patients were randomly divided into a training set (n = 227) and a validation set (n = 97) at a ratio of 7:3. The follow-up period was 3 years, and patients with disease progression were defined as the progression group. In the training set, indicators related to prognosis were screened through univariate analysis. After variable compression by LASSO regression, independent influencing factors for poor prognosis were determined using multivariate logistic regression. Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, XG BOOST, and K-Nearest Neighbor algorithm prediction models were constructed using Python software. The performance of the models was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and the optimal model was selected.ResultsThere were no significant differences in the baseline characteristics between the training set and the validation set patients (P > 0.05), indicating comparability. In the training set, multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that pigmentary abnormalities, the total area of drusen in the macular area, and the ellipsoid zone were independent risk factors for disease progression (P < 0.05), while subfoveal choroidal thickness and choroidal capillary blood flow density were independent protective factors (P < 0.05). The AUC values of the Random Forest model (0.779 in the training set and 0.700 in the validation set) were significantly higher than those of the K-Nearest Neighbor algorithm (0.717 in the training set and 0.596 in the validation set), the Support Vector Machine model (0.768 in the training set and 0.646 in the validation set), and XG BOOST (0.702 in the training set and 0.762 in the validation set), making it the optimal prediction model.ConclusionIn this study, an AMD progression prediction model based on multimodal fundus images was successfully developed, which can effectively identify patients at high risk of progression and provide a new paradigm for clinical individualized precision medicine.