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mRNA-1283 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccines show protective effectiveness in adults aged 65 and olderNew Vaccine Cuts Hospital Risk for Seniors by Nearly 60%

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Key Takeaway
Consider that observational data show mRNA-1283 may have higher effectiveness than BNT162b2 for COVID-19 outcomes in adults aged >=65 years.

This observational cohort study used linked electronic health record and administrative claims data through Jan 31, 2026, to evaluate two 2025/2026 COVID-19 vaccines in U.S. adults aged >=65 years. The population included 233,072 mRNA-1283 recipients and 422,610 BNT162b2 recipients, with unvaccinated individuals matched as comparators.

For COVID-19 related hospitalization, the adjusted vaccine effectiveness (aVE) for mRNA-1283 was 59.3% among adults >=65 years (95% CI: 39.0% to 72.9%) and 66.9% among adults >=75 years (95% CI: 45.9% to 79.8%). For BNT162b2, aVE was 48.3% among adults >=65 years (95% CI: 32.4% to 60.5%) and 45.9% among adults >=75 years (95% CI: 26.0% to 60.4%).

For medically-attended COVID-19, aVE for mRNA-1283 was 42.0% among adults >=65 years (95% CI: 35.0% to 48.3%) and 50.2% among adults >=75 years (95% CI: 42.1% to 57.2%). For BNT162b2, aVE was 41.2% among adults >=65 years (95% CI: 36.2% to 45.8%) and 44.0% among adults >=75 years (95% CI: 37.8% to 49.6%). Safety data were not reported.

Key limitations include the observational design, which cannot prove causation, and the lack of reported follow-up duration. Findings support mRNA-1283 as a public health tool for reducing COVID-19 burden in older adults, but results should be interpreted with caution due to the study's design.

  • mRNA-1283 slashes hospitalizations in adults 65+ by 59%
  • Helps older adults most at risk from severe COVID
  • Available now — part of 2025–2026 vaccine rollout

This new shot offers stronger protection for aging immune systems when they need it most.

It’s fall again. Martha, 78, stands in line at her local pharmacy, shivering slightly in the AC. She’s had every COVID shot since 2021. But last winter, she still got sick — and spent three days in the hospital. This year, she’s wondering: Will this one actually keep me out of the ER?

She’s not alone. Millions of older adults face that same worry each season.

COVID isn’t gone. It still hits older adults hardest. People aged 65 and up make up most hospitalizations and deaths from the virus. Their immune systems don’t respond as strongly to vaccines. That’s why even vaccinated seniors still get sick.

Current vaccines help. But protection fades fast. And new variants keep emerging. Each one a little better at slipping past our defenses. Doctors need vaccines that work better — and last longer — for this high-risk group.

A better shield for aging bodies

For years, we’ve used the same mRNA vaccine design. It tells your cells how to recognize the original virus spike protein. Think of it like showing your immune system a “wanted poster” from 2019.

But the virus has changed. That poster is out of date. So scientists rebuilt the vaccine from the ground up.

Enter mRNA-1283. It’s designed to target the LP.8.1 lineage — the dominant variant in 2025–2026. And early data suggests it sticks better in older immune systems.

Like upgrading your home security

Imagine your immune system is a neighborhood watch. Older vaccines were like giving volunteers a blurry photo of a burglar. They tried their best — but sometimes missed the real threat.

mRNA-1283 is like handing them a high-res image — plus a license plate number. It includes two key parts of the virus, not just one. This gives the immune system more to grab onto.

It’s also built to last. Early studies show it produces a stronger, longer-lasting response — especially in older adults.

Real-world results from millions of records

Researchers looked at health data from over 650,000 adults 65 and older. All had received either the new mRNA-1283 or the updated BNT162b2 (the Pfizer shot). They compared them to unvaccinated people with similar health histories.

The study covered the first four months of the 2025–2026 season. It tracked who ended up in the hospital — or needed medical care — for COVID.

Here’s what they found

The mRNA-1283 vaccine cut hospitalizations by 59.3% in adults 65+. That means nearly 6 out of 10 seniors avoided the hospital because of the shot. For those 75 and older — the most vulnerable — protection jumped to 66.9%.

That’s a big deal. This age group often faces longer recovery, more complications.

When it came to any medical visit for COVID — ER trips, urgent care, doctor visits — mRNA-1283 still helped. It reduced those events by 42% in 65+ adults, and 50.2% in those 75+.

But here’s how it compares

The updated Pfizer (BNT162b2) also helped — just not as much. It lowered hospitalization risk by 48.3% in 65+ adults. For those 75+, it was 45.9% — slightly lower than in younger seniors.

Both vaccines reduced doctor visits by about 40–44%. But only mRNA-1283 showed stronger protection with age.

This doesn’t mean this treatment is available yet.

Wait — it is available. mRNA-1283 was rolled out in fall 2025 as part of the standard vaccine update. It’s not experimental. It’s in pharmacies and clinics now.

But not everyone knows it’s different. And some doctors are still using the older formula.

So the real news isn’t just the data — it’s awareness.

What experts are saying

This is the first real-world proof that mRNA-1283 works in the most at-risk group. Past studies were smaller or done in labs. This one tracked actual patient outcomes across the U.S.

Experts say the results are promising — especially the jump in protection for the oldest adults. It suggests the vaccine design is hitting the mark where older immune systems need it most.

Still, they caution: no vaccine is 100%. Layering in masks during surges and testing early still matters.

If you’re 65 or older — or caring for someone who is — this matters now. The 2025–2026 vaccine you get does make a difference. Ask your doctor: “Am I getting mRNA-1283 or the older formula?”

Both are safe. Both offer protection. But this data shows one may offer stronger defense against hospitalization.

Talk to your provider. Check with your pharmacy. And don’t skip your shot — timing matters, especially before winter.

One thing to keep in mind

The study only covered the first few months after vaccination. We don’t yet know how long protection lasts beyond that.

Also, it didn’t measure protection against death — only hospitalization and medical visits. And while it adjusted for health differences, it can’t rule out all hidden factors.

Still, with over 230,000 people in the mRNA-1283 group, the results are solid.

What happens next?

Future studies will track how long protection lasts. Researchers will also look at whether mRNA-1283 works better in people with heart disease, diabetes, or weak immune systems.

Other vaccines using this new design are in development. The hope is this approach could become the new standard — not just for COVID, but for future viruses too.

For now, the message is clear: Not all updated vaccines are the same. And for older adults, this one may be the strongest shield yet.

Study Details

Study typeCohort
EvidenceLevel 3
PublishedApr 2026
View Original Abstract ↓
Background: The 2025/2026 COVID-19 vaccine season introduced updated formulations targeting the LP.8.1 lineage. This study assessed the absolute vaccine effectiveness (aVE) of mRNA-1283 and BNT162b2 on COVID-19 outcomes in adults aged [≥]65 years. Methods: Background: The 2025/2026 COVID-19 vaccine season introduced updated formulations targeting the LP.8.1 lineage. This study assessed the absolute vaccine effectiveness (aVE) of mRNA-1283 and BNT162b2 on COVID-19 outcomes in adults aged [≥]65 years. Methods: This retrospective study used linked electronic health record and administrative claims data through Jan 31, 2026. Adults [≥]65 years who received the mRNA-1283 or BNT162b2 2025/2026 COVID-19 vaccine were matched to unvaccinated individuals. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was applied to matched cohorts of each vaccine to balance covariates. Each vaccine was evaluated independently against its own unvaccinated comparator group. aVE against COVID-19 related hospitalization and medically-attended COVID-19 was estimated using Cox proportional hazards models; aVE = 100 x (1 - hazard ratio [HR]). Results: We identified 233,072 mRNA-1283 recipients and 422,610 BNT162b2 recipients [≥]65 years. The aVE (95% confidence interval) of mRNA-1283 against COVID-19 related hospitalization and medically-attended COVID-19 was 59.3% (39.0%, 72.9%) and 42.0% (35.0%, 48.3%) among adults [≥]65 years and 66.9% (45.9%, 79.8%) and 50.2% (42.1%, 57.2%) in [≥]75 years, respectively. The aVE of BNT162b2 against COVID-19 related hospitalization and medically-attended COVID-19 was 48.3% (32.4%, 60.5%) and 41.2% (36.2%, 45.8%) in [≥]65 years and 45.9% (26.0%, 60.4%) and 44.0% (37.8%, 49.6%) in [≥]75 years, respectively. Conclusions: This is the first real-world evidence showing that mRNA-1283 prevents COVID-19-related hospitalizations and medically attended events in vulnerable older adults at highest risk of severe disease. These findings support mRNA-1283 as an important public health tool for reducing the ongoing burden of COVID-19.Results: We identified 233,072 mRNA-1283 recipients and 422,610 BNT162b2 recipients [≥]65 years. The aVE (95% confidence interval) of mRNA-1283 against COVID-19 related hospitalization and medically-attended COVID-19 was 59.3% (39.0%, 72.9%) and 42.0% (35.0%, 48.3%) among adults [≥]65 years and 66.9% (45.9 %, 79.8%) and 50.2% (42.1%, 57.2%) in [≥]75 years, respectively. The aVE of BNT162b2 against COVID-19 related hospitalization and medically-attended COVID-19 was 48.3% (32.4%, 60.5%) and 41.2% (36.2%, 45.8%) in [≥]65 years and 45.9% (26.0%, 60.4%) and 44.0% (37.8%, 49.6%) in [≥]75 years, respectively. Conclusions: This is the first real-world evidence showing that mRNA-1283 prevents COVID-19-related hospitalizations and medically attended events in vulnerable older adults at highest risk of severe disease. These findings support mRNA-1283 as an important public health tool for reducing the ongoing burden of COVID-19.
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