When COVID-19 first swept across the U.S., people with end-stage kidney disease—those who rely on dialysis to survive—were among the most vulnerable. A new look at national data estimates that between 7,000 and 10,300 more of these patients died during the first seven months of the pandemic than would have been expected in a normal year. That translates to roughly 9 to 13 extra deaths for every 1,000 people in this high-risk group. This study didn't try to pinpoint the exact causes of these excess deaths, which could include COVID-19 itself, disruptions to medical care, or other pandemic-related factors. It simply measures the gap between what happened and what was expected. The analysis covers a massive group—nearly 800,000 U.S. patients—but it's an observational snapshot, not a controlled experiment. It tells us the scale of the loss during that frightening period, but it can't prove what specifically drove it.
ESRD patients experienced 8.7-12.9 excess deaths per 1,000 during early U.S. COVID-19 pandemicHow many more dialysis patients died during the first COVID-19 wave?
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Key Takeaway
Note elevated mortality estimates in ESRD patients during early pandemic; association is observational.
An observational analysis examined excess mortality in the U.S. end-stage renal disease (ESRD) population during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. The study included a population of 798,611 U.S. ESRD patients and assessed excess deaths during the first 7 months of the pandemic (February through August 2020). The specific intervention, exposure, or comparator was not reported.
The main finding was an estimated 8.7 to 12.9 excess deaths per 1,000 patients. In absolute numbers, this corresponds to an estimated 6,953 to 10,316 excess deaths within this population during the study period. The effect size, statistical significance, and direction of the estimate were not reported.
Safety and tolerability data were not reported. Key limitations, including potential confounding factors and the methodology for calculating excess deaths, were not detailed. The funding source and potential conflicts of interest were also not reported.
As an observational analysis, this study identifies an association but cannot establish causality for the excess deaths. The findings underscore the significant burden of mortality in the ESRD population coinciding with the pandemic's onset. Clinicians should interpret these population-level estimates cautiously, recognizing they describe a correlation during a specific timeframe without elucidating specific causative mechanisms.
What this means for you:
The pandemic's first wave brought a sharp rise in deaths among people on dialysis. More on End Stage Renal Disease
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View Original Abstract ↓
Based on the national trend in ESRD deaths during the first 7 months of the U.S. COVID-19 pandemic (February-August 2020), an estimated 8.7-12.9 excess deaths per 1,000 patients or 6,953-10,316 excess deaths in a population of 798,611 U.S. ESRD patients occurred.
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