A new analysis of European studies looked at how often people with Parkinson's disease end up in a nursing home or other long-term care facility. The researchers combined data from several incidence cohorts, including 1,046 people with Parkinson's. They followed these individuals for up to 10 years to see who became institutionalized.
The findings show that by 10 years after diagnosis, about 37.2% of people with Parkinson's had entered a nursing home. That translates to an incidence rate of 1.7 to 6.2 per 100 person-years. In simpler terms, the risk is substantial over a decade.
Three factors stood out as strong predictors of institutionalization: older age, more severe motor symptoms (measured by the MDS-UPDRS part 3 score), and lower scores on a cognitive test (MMSE). The researchers built a model using these factors, and it performed reasonably well at predicting who would need care, with accuracy scores (C-statistics) ranging from 0.73 to 0.81 for 10-year predictions and 0.71 to 0.84 for 7-year predictions.
However, the model's calibration was not perfect, meaning it sometimes over- or under-predicted risk in different studies. The authors stress that the model needs further validation before it can be used in everyday clinical practice. For now, this research highlights which Parkinson's patients might need extra support and planning, but it does not provide a definitive tool for individual predictions.
