Observational cohort links symptom severity subgroups to poorer functioning and brain volume in psychosis and depression risk.

Background: The severity of positive psychotic symptoms largely defines emerging psychosis syndromes. However, depressive and negative symptoms are strongly psychologically and biologically interlinked. A transdiagnostic exploration of symptom severity across early illness syndromes could enhance the understanding of shared common factors and future trajectories of mental illness. We aimed to identify subgroups based on the severity of positive, negative, and depressive symptoms and assess relationships with: 1) premorbid functioning, 2) longitudinal illness course, 3) genetic risk, and 4) brain volume differences. Methods: We analysed 749 participants from a multisite, naturalistic, longitudinal (18 months) cohort study of: clinical high risk for psychosis (n=147), recent onset psychosis (n=161), and healthy controls (n=286), and recent onset depression (n=155). Participants were stratified into subgroups based on severity of baseline positive, negative, and depression symptoms. Baseline and longitudinal differences between groups for clinical, functioning, and polygenic risk scores (schizophrenia, depression, cross-disorder) were assessed with ANOVAs and linear mixed models. Voxel-based morphometry was used to examine whole-brain grey matter volume differences. Discovery findings were replicated in a held-out sample (n=610). Results: Participants were stratified into no (n=241), mild (n=50), moderate (n=182), and severe symptom (n=254) subgroups. The mean (SD) age was 25.3 (6.0) and 344 (47.3%) were male. Symptom severity was associated with poorer premorbid functioning and illness trajectory, greater genetic risk, and lower brain volume. Findings were not confounded by the original study groups or symptoms and were largely replicated. Conclusions and relevance: Transdiagnostic symptom severity is linked to shared aetiologies, prognoses, and biological markers across diagnoses and illness stages. Such commonalities could guide therapeutic selection and future research aiming to detect unique contributions to specific psychopathologies.