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Meta-analysis of antiretroviral therapy virologic suppression in HIV-positive pregnant and lactating women in AfricaNew review shows HIV treatment success varies by age and adherence

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Key Takeaway
Note that younger age, non-disclosure, and non-first-line regimens correlate with lower suppression in African pregnant women.

This systematic review and meta-analysis synthesized data from studies conducted across Africa to assess virologic suppression in HIV-positive pregnant and lactating women. The analysis included a total sample size of 304,883 participants. The primary outcome of interest was virologic suppression, defined as a viral load threshold of less than or equal to 1000 copies per milliliter. Secondary outcomes included the achievement of an undetectable viral load. The follow-up period across the pooled data spanned 288.0 months. The study design is observational, aggregating data from multiple sources to provide a broad overview of treatment efficacy in this specific demographic.

The overall prevalence of virologic suppression in the pooled population was 80.86%, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 77.63% to 84.09%. When focusing specifically on the achievement of an undetectable viral load, the pooled estimate was 60.92% (95% CI: 52.46%, 69.39%). These figures represent the aggregate performance of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in this setting. It is important to note that absolute numbers for these outcomes were not reported in the source data, limiting the ability to calculate specific event counts.

Several factors were significantly associated with virologic outcomes in this analysis. Women aged 15 to 24 years demonstrated a significantly lower likelihood of suppression, with an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of 0.49 (95% CI: 0.32-0.77). Conversely, disclosure of HIV status to a partner was associated with significantly higher suppression rates, yielding an AOR of 1.66 (95% CI: 1.31-2.11). The use of a first-line antiretroviral therapy regimen showed a strong association with suppression, with an AOR of 6.53 (95% CI: 1.93-22.06). Furthermore, good antiretroviral drug adherence was significantly associated with better outcomes, with an AOR of 3.61 (95% CI: 1.18-11.02).

Safety and tolerability findings were not reported in the included studies. Consequently, specific adverse event rates, serious adverse events, discontinuation rates, or general tolerability data could not be extracted or synthesized for this meta-analysis. The absence of this safety data is a notable gap in the current evidence base for this population.

The authors note that comprehensive data on virologic suppression among pregnant and lactating mothers across the African continent remains limited. This limitation restricts the generalizability of the findings to other regions or populations not represented in the source studies. Additionally, the observational nature of the underlying data means that the reported associations should not be interpreted as causal relationships. For instance, the association with age or partner disclosure may be confounded by other unmeasured variables.

These results emphasize the necessity of targeted strategies for younger HIV-positive women, those who disclose their status to partners, individuals initiating first-line antiretroviral regimens, and patients promoting antiretroviral treatment adherence. Clinicians should interpret these associations as indicators of factors correlated with success rather than direct causal drivers. The data underscores the complexity of achieving viral suppression in resource-limited settings where adherence and regimen selection are critical variables.

Several questions remain unanswered. The lack of safety data prevents a full risk-benefit analysis for clinicians managing these patients. The wide confidence intervals for some outcomes, particularly the undetectable viral load estimate, suggest heterogeneity in the underlying studies or variability in reporting standards. Future research should aim to capture safety profiles and absolute event counts to provide a more complete picture of ART performance in pregnant and lactating women in Africa.

This research matters deeply for women living with HIV in Africa, as controlling the virus protects both the mother and her baby. Without effective control, the virus can pass to infants during pregnancy or breastfeeding, leading to serious illness. Understanding what helps women stay healthy is essential for public health efforts across the continent. The study aims to identify specific factors that improve outcomes for this vulnerable group.

Researchers combined data from many sources to create a comprehensive picture of treatment success. They looked at over 304,000 women receiving antiretroviral therapy in Africa. The goal was to see how often women reached a state where their viral load was low enough to be considered suppressed. The team also looked at specific details like age, whether women told their partners about their status, and how well they took their daily medicine.

The main finding was that 80.86% of women had virologic suppression, meaning their viral load was at or below 1,000 copies per milliliter. However, only 60.92% achieved an undetectable viral load, which is the ideal goal for preventing transmission. Several factors were linked to better or worse outcomes. Younger women aged 15 to 24 were significantly less likely to succeed, with an adjusted odds ratio of 0.49. This means they were about half as likely to achieve suppression compared to older women. Conversely, women who told their partners about their HIV status had much better results, with an adjusted odds ratio of 1.66.

Taking the first-line antiretroviral therapy regimen was strongly linked to success, with an adjusted odds ratio of 6.53. This suggests that starting with the standard recommended treatment plan greatly improves the chances of controlling the virus. Good adherence to the medication schedule was also critical, showing an adjusted odds ratio of 3.61. Women who took their medicine exactly as prescribed were far more likely to keep their virus under control. The study did not report specific safety concerns, adverse events, or reasons for stopping treatment, as this data was not available in the source records.

It is important to remember that this is a meta-analysis, which combines results from many smaller studies. The researchers themselves note that comprehensive data on these women remains limited across the continent. Because the data is limited, we cannot say for sure that these factors caused the results, only that they are associated with them. People should not overreact or change their treatment based on a single summary of this type. The findings highlight areas where health systems can focus their efforts, such as supporting younger women and encouraging open communication with partners.

For patients right now, this study reinforces the importance of taking antiretroviral therapy exactly as prescribed. It also suggests that healthcare providers should pay special attention to younger women and those who have not yet disclosed their status. While this review provides useful insights, it does not replace individual medical advice. Every person's situation is unique, and treatment plans should always be made with a qualified healthcare provider who knows the patient's full history.

What this means for you:
Treatment success linked to age, disclosure, and adherence; data limited.

Study Details

Study typeMeta analysis
Sample sizen = 304,883
EvidenceLevel 1
Follow-up288.0 mo
PublishedJan 2026
View Original Abstract ↓
BACKGROUND: The elimination of mother-to-child transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a key global public health priority. In Africa, virologic failure among people living with HIV continues to pose a significant public health challenge, affecting both individual well-being and community health. Maintaining viral load suppression is crucial to prevent vertical transmission of HIV and to minimize maternal morbidity and mortality. To stop the vertical transmission of HIV and lower the risk of maternal morbidity and mortality, it is important to achieve viral load suppression. Although many African countries have adopted the global 95-95-95 targets, comprehensive data on virologic suppression among pregnant and lactating mothers across the continent remains limited. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to determine the pooled estimate of virologic suppression and to examine the factors associated with it among HIV-positive pregnant and lactating women on antiretroviral therapy in Africa. METHODS: This study followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The study protocol was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO; CRD420251186121). We carried out a thorough systematic review by examining PubMed, ScienceDirect, Hinari, and Google Scholar for relevant studies. Data from the studies were retrieved using an Excel sheet and analyzed with STATA version 17. The Joanna Briggs Institute appraisal tool was used to evaluate the methodological quality of studies. A random-effects model with restricted maximum likelihood (REML) was applied to determine the pooled prevalence of virologic suppression (viral load threshold ≤1000 copies/ml) among pregnant and lactating mothers in Africa. A funnel plot and the Egger's test were used to investigate publication bias. Statistical heterogeneity was assessed using the I2 statistic and Cochrane's Q test. RESULTS: A total of 55 eligible studies, comprising 304,883 participants, were included in the quantitative meta-analysis. Accordingly, the overall prevalence of virologic suppression among HIV-positive pregnant and breastfeeding women in Africa was 80.86% (95% CI: 77.63%, 84.09%, I2 = 99.84%). In contrast, the pooled estimate for achieving an undetectable viral load was substantially lower, at 60.92% (95% CI: 52.46%, 69.39%; I2 = 99.91%). Virologic suppression was significantly associated with women's age (15-24 years) (AOR = 0.49; 95% CI: 0.32-0.77), disclosure of HIV status to a partner (AOR = 1.66; 95% CI: 1.31-2.11), first-line antiretroviral therapy regimen (AOR = 6.53; 95% CI: 1.93-22.06), and good antiretroviral drug adherence (AOR = 3.61; 95% CI: 1.18-11.02). In addition, other socio-demographic variables, higher educational level, being married/cohabitant, urban residency, healthcare utilization (time of ANC booking, time of ART initiation, duration of ART), fear of stigma, distance to health facility, shortage of health professionals, ART drug stock-out, and lack of HIV care commodities were significantly associated with virologic suppression among HIV-positive pregnant and lactating women in Africa. CONCLUSION: The pooled estimate of virologic suppression among HIV-positive pregnant and breastfeeding women in Africa was approximately 81%, below the global target of 95% virological suppression. This emphasizes the necessity of targeted strategies for younger HIV-positive women, disclosing HIV status, initiating first-line antiretroviral regimens, and promoting antiretroviral treatment adherence. Upgrading health care systems to enable regular viral load monitoring, as well as addressing socio-demographic and antiretroviral therapy-related variables, are vital steps towards attaining and sustaining VS in these groups of population, ultimately assisting in achieving elimination of MTCT of HIV.
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