Meta-analysis of antiretroviral therapy virologic suppression in HIV-positive pregnant and lactating women in Africa

BACKGROUND: The elimination of mother-to-child transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a key global public health priority. In Africa, virologic failure among people living with HIV continues to pose a significant public health challenge, affecting both individual well-being and community health. Maintaining viral load suppression is crucial to prevent vertical transmission of HIV and to minimize maternal morbidity and mortality. To stop the vertical transmission of HIV and lower the risk of maternal morbidity and mortality, it is important to achieve viral load suppression. Although many African countries have adopted the global 95-95-95 targets, comprehensive data on virologic suppression among pregnant and lactating mothers across the continent remains limited. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to determine the pooled estimate of virologic suppression and to examine the factors associated with it among HIV-positive pregnant and lactating women on antiretroviral therapy in Africa. METHODS: This study followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The study protocol was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO; CRD420251186121). We carried out a thorough systematic review by examining PubMed, ScienceDirect, Hinari, and Google Scholar for relevant studies. Data from the studies were retrieved using an Excel sheet and analyzed with STATA version 17. The Joanna Briggs Institute appraisal tool was used to evaluate the methodological quality of studies. A random-effects model with restricted maximum likelihood (REML) was applied to determine the pooled prevalence of virologic suppression (viral load threshold ≤1000 copies/ml) among pregnant and lactating mothers in Africa. A funnel plot and the Egger's test were used to investigate publication bias. Statistical heterogeneity was assessed using the I2 statistic and Cochrane's Q test. RESULTS: A total of 55 eligible studies, comprising 304,883 participants, were included in the quantitative meta-analysis. Accordingly, the overall prevalence of virologic suppression among HIV-positive pregnant and breastfeeding women in Africa was 80.86% (95% CI: 77.63%, 84.09%, I2 = 99.84%). In contrast, the pooled estimate for achieving an undetectable viral load was substantially lower, at 60.92% (95% CI: 52.46%, 69.39%; I2 = 99.91%). Virologic suppression was significantly associated with women's age (15-24 years) (AOR = 0.49; 95% CI: 0.32-0.77), disclosure of HIV status to a partner (AOR = 1.66; 95% CI: 1.31-2.11), first-line antiretroviral therapy regimen (AOR = 6.53; 95% CI: 1.93-22.06), and good antiretroviral drug adherence (AOR = 3.61; 95% CI: 1.18-11.02). In addition, other socio-demographic variables, higher educational level, being married/cohabitant, urban residency, healthcare utilization (time of ANC booking, time of ART initiation, duration of ART), fear of stigma, distance to health facility, shortage of health professionals, ART drug stock-out, and lack of HIV care commodities were significantly associated with virologic suppression among HIV-positive pregnant and lactating women in Africa. CONCLUSION: The pooled estimate of virologic suppression among HIV-positive pregnant and breastfeeding women in Africa was approximately 81%, below the global target of 95% virological suppression. This emphasizes the necessity of targeted strategies for younger HIV-positive women, disclosing HIV status, initiating first-line antiretroviral regimens, and promoting antiretroviral treatment adherence. Upgrading health care systems to enable regular viral load monitoring, as well as addressing socio-demographic and antiretroviral therapy-related variables, are vital steps towards attaining and sustaining VS in these groups of population, ultimately assisting in achieving elimination of MTCT of HIV.