Protocol outlines target trial emulation for bipolar disorder treatments in patients with opioid use disorder

Introduction People with bipolar disorder (BD) and concurrent opioid use disorder (OUD) experience more severe clinical outcomes, including higher mortality, treatment complexity, and worse psychiatric symptoms, yet they are underserved due to a lack of tailored clinical guidelines and limited supporting research on competing treatment options. While pharmacological treatments for BD are well-established, their use varies widely across settings, and their effectiveness in individuals with co-occurring OUD is unclear. We propose parallel population-based studies to emulate randomized controlled trials to assess the comparative effectiveness of pharmacological treatment options for BD among people with OUD in British Columbia and Ontario, Canada, 2010-2023. Methods and analysis We propose emulating a series of parallel target trials using linked population-level health administrative data for all individuals aged 18 years or older diagnosed with both BD and OUD and who initiated treatments for BD between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2023. All analyses will be conducted in parallel in British Columbia and Ontario. We propose a series of four successive target trial emulations, comparing (i) lithium versus non-antipsychotic mood stabilizers such as divalproex, lamotrigine, and valproic acid; (ii) lithium versus 2nd generation antipsychotics with mood stabilizing properties such as risperidone, olanzapine, aripiprazole, and quetiapine; (iii) lithium versus combination treatments such as lithium and divalproex, lithium and olanzapine, lithium and aripiprazole, lithium and quetiapine, divalproex and olanzapine, and olanzapine and quetiapine; (iv) lithium and valproate (LATVAL) versus lithium and olanzapine, lithium and aripiprazole, lithium and quetiapine, divalproex and olanzapine, and olanzapine and quetiapine. Incident user and prevalent new user analyses are planned for proposed target trials (i)-(iv), pending sufficient data. Stratified analyses will be conducted for BD-I, manic and depressive phases of BD illness. We propose an initiator analysis (intention-to-treat, conditional on medication dispensation) to determine the effectiveness of the treatments and per-protocol analyses to determine the efficacy of the treatments after dealing with treatment switching and recommended dose adjustment. The outcomes will include psychiatric acute-care visits (hospitalizations and emergency department visits), BD treatment discontinuation and all-cause mortality. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses, including cohort and study timeline restrictions, eligibility criteria modifications, and outcome reclassifications, are proposed to assess the robustness of our results. Executing analyses in parallel across settings using a co-developed protocol will allow us to evaluate the replicability of findings. Ethics and dissemination The protocol, cohort creation, and analysis plan have been classified and approved as a quality improvement initiative by the Providence Health Care Research Ethics Board and the Simon Fraser University Office of Research Ethics. Results will be disseminated to local advocacy groups, clinical groups and decision-makers, national and international clinical guideline developers, presented at international conferences, and published in peer-reviewed journals.